Randomisation
In these tests, a card is selected on each trial by a pseudo-random computer
algorithm. There is no discernible pattern to the sequence of cards. Although
equi-probable, the cards will generally differ in the overall frequency with
which they are selected (in the same way that tossing a coin several times will
not necessarily result in equal numbers of heads and tails). With Advanced
ESP Test, however, you can choose a Closed Deck procedure in
which the frequencies of different cards will be the same.
Here you have to guess 25 cards, each of which is selected by the computer prior
to your guess. The actual card will be shown after you click on your chosen
symbol. To show evidence of ESP, you need to score at least 10 correct guesses
(hits). The chances of obtaining 10 or more hits by luck is less than 1 in 20.
Here you have to guess 50 cards, each of which is selected by the computer prior
to your guess. The actual card will be shown after you click on your chosen
symbol. A statistical analysis of your results will be shown at the end (for details on this,
see the instructions for the Advanced ESP Test below). To show any evidence of ESP in our championship test,
you need to score at least 17 correct guesses (hits). The chances of obtaining 17
or more hits by luck is less than 1 in 20.
If you obtain a score that is equal to or higher than the top scores obtained by
our users, you will be given the opportunity to submit your data to us so that you can be added
to our published list of champions!
Here you can choose different test procedures, which is especially useful for
research purposes.
Clairvoyance and Telepathy
In the Clairvoyance procedure, the computer will select a card
prior to each guess (as in Quick ESP Test). You have to guess each card.
In the Telepathy procedure, two people are needed. One acts as
"sender", the other as "receiver". The sender is shown each card as it is
selected by the computer and tries to "send" the image telepathically to the
receiver. The receiver then guesses the card and informs the sender who
clicks the guessed symbol. The next card will then be shown to the sender and
the procedure is repeated.
Open and Closed Decks
In the Open Deck procedure, the card for each trial is chosen by
the computer without taking into consideration which symbols have already been
chosen. This is equivalent to shuffling a deck of cards, choosing one card, and
then replacing the card in the deck before it is shuffled again. In this
way the different symbols will not necessarily be chosen the same number of
times in total. Open Deck procedures are generally preferable because the
probability of selecting any symbol on each trial always remains the same.
In the Closed Deck procedure, each card is chosen the same number
of times in total. This is equivalent to shuffling a deck of cards and then
guessing each card in turn, without replacing the cards in the deck after each
guess.With the Closed Deck procedure, the probabilty of selecting symbols will
vary throughout the test, depending on which cards have already been chosen.
This makes the statistical analysis of results rather more complex.
Cards Seen or Unseen
In the Cards Seen procedure, the actual card is shown after every
guess, together with a running total of hits.
In the Cards Unseen procedure, the actual card is not shown after
the guess and the number of hits obtained is hidden until the end of the test.
If the Closed Deck procedure is selected, then the Cards Unseen
option MUST be selected. Otherwise it is possible to count the cards as they are
shown, enabling the person to guess more accurately as certain cards are
eliminated. The program will not let you choose this combination of options.
Number of Cards
You can choose various options for the number of trials in the test (up to a
maximum of 1000 individual trials). You should choose at least 50 trials to
obtain a reliable indication of your performance
Statistical Analysis
Your results will automatically be analysed statistically at the end of the
test. The statistical procedure used is known as the z-test.This compares
the number of hits obtained with the number expected by chance. The probability
(p) of obtaining hits as high (or as low) as those obtained is
determined. If this probability is small (less than 1 in 20, i.e., less than
0.05) the results are said to be statistically significant and may show
evidence of ESP. The smaller the probability (p) obtained, the greater
the possible evidence for ESP. If significantly more hits are
obtained than expected by chance, this indicates psi-hitting.
Paradoxically, if significantly less hits are obtained than
expected by chance (known as psi-missing), this can also indicate
ESP (because to consistently make an incorrect guess indicates some awareness of
the actual target to avoid). Results in the direction of psi-hitting are
indicated by a positive z score, whereas a negative z score
indicates results in the direction of psi-missing.
Further Testing
If you wish to test your performance over several
tests, record the number of hits (and total guesses) on each test. You can then
test for the combined significance of your results using our
Hit-Miss Psi Test Statistical Calculator.
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